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The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are: Average weekly hours in manufacturing Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials The Conference Board LEI for the US declined in September, after also contracting in August. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the US rose slightly in September after remaining unchanged in August, but its six-month growth rate has declined.
Understanding the Context
Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that the expansion in economic activity should continue ... About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the global economy. The composite indexes are the key elements in an early warning system to signal peaks and troughs in the global business cycle. The CEI is a monthly metric that is highly correlated with real GDP.
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Key Insights
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined in Both October and November The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in November 2025 to 97.9 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1% in October to 98.2, down from 98.3 in September. Overall, the LEI fell by 1.2% over the six months between May and November 2025, a much more moderate ... The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area are: ECB Minimum Bid Yield Spread Consumer Expectations of the General Economic Situation EURO STOXX® Price Index Industry Production Expectations